Is Beating Your Financial Forecast Actually a Good Thing?

Let’s talk about something that might surprise you: Is beating your financial forecast by 20%, 30%, even 40% actually a good thing?

At first glance, it sounds like a win. Revenue’s up, profit’s looking great—what’s not to love? But let’s take a closer look.

Why Forecast Accuracy Matters More Than You Think

There are two ways to look at this. If you're beating your forecast by 5–7%, that’s a healthy margin. You’re slightly ahead, and that’s great! You can use that insight to make tweaks and further improve.

But if you’re smashing it by 10%, 20%, or more, it might be time to pause and reflect.

I remember the first time this happened to me. I was just starting to get into financial forecasting and I proudly jumped on a call with my mentor to share the news:

“We beat the forecast by 30%!”

I expected high fives. Instead, he gave me a measured look and said,

“I’m glad you hit those numbers… but I’m concerned about our forecasting model.”

It threw me at the time, but he was absolutely right.

The Real Danger: Unpredictability

As clinic owners, the real financial stress doesn’t come from a lack of income—it comes from unpredictability. If you can’t reliably forecast what’s coming in, it makes it very difficult to make confident decisions.

Think about it:

• Hiring new team members

• Investing in new programs or renovations

• Paying dividends

• Allocating resources across multiple locations

All of these decisions hinge on knowing what’s coming down the pipeline.

Predictability Creates Peace of Mind

You’re not just forecasting for the sake of spreadsheets. You’re forecasting to reduce stress and make smart decisions. Clinics with predictable income streams are:

✅ Less stressed
✅ More confident in hiring and investment
✅ Able to pay consistent dividends
✅ Better positioned for long-term planning

So if you’re crushing your forecast, don’t just pop the champagne. Ask:

• What did we miss?

• What changed that we didn’t see coming?

• How can we better account for that next time?

Your Next Step

Here’s your challenge:
👉 Go back over your financial forecasts from the past year.
👉 Compare your actuals month-by-month and quarter-by-quarter.
👉 Calculate the percentage deviation—positive or negative.

If you’re consistently within 5–7%, you’re right on track. If not, it’s time to fine-tune your model.